Space Blog

My Opinion - Stay the Course

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Written by Mark Mayfield

Under mounting political pressure, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin has ordered an internal reassessment of the agency's decision to retire the space shuttle fleet in 2010 to make way for

the new generation of vehicles that will take America back to the Moon.

While Griffin has expressed an unwavering commitment to the shuttle retirement timetable, his latest decision, made reluctantly, has no doubt had a chilling effect on the thousands of people now working on the new Constellation (Return to the Moon) program. NASA has already spent $1 billion or more on this effort.

The truly sad thing about this is that Griffin had re-energized NASA with a new focus—and spirits had been decidedly upbeat as progress has been made, despite some delays, on the hardware and software involved with Ares 1 and Orion.

A lot is in play here: Russia's military action against Georgia drew outrage from the Bush administration as well as Congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle. And now there is growing concern about NASA's plan to rely on Russia's Soyuz spacecraft to ferry American astronauts to and from the International Space Station after the space shuttle program is retired. Most of us in this business had known a long time ago that the Constellation program necessitated a 'gap' of as many as five years between the retirement of the shuttle and the operational readiness of the new Ares and Orion vehicles. The only answer, it seemed, for flying Americans into space during that gap would be for NASA to buy flights aboard Russia's Soyuz.

No one that I know was ever comfortable with this scenario. But given NASA's budget, there was little else Griffin and others could do. NASA simply does not have anywhere near enough funding in its budget to pay for both an operational space shuttle program and the development of Ares and Orion. It's always been about the money.

But now, partly because of the Russian/Georgian conflict and partly because of the looming presidential election, Griffin has chosen to reconsider the shuttle's retirement, while saying he still remains solidly committed to his original plan. Yet, the original plan meant that Congress would have to authorize a waiver to allow America to buy rides about the Russian spacecraft. Yet, given the political landscape, it seems highly unlikely Congress will OK that waiver anytime soon.

U.S. Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee for president, joined two other senators from his party recently in sending a note to President Bush saying that Congress is in no mood to authorize NASA's plan to give money to Russia for U.S. crew spaceflights. McCain was simply the bearer of realistic bad news. Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, has so far been silent on the Congressional waiver issue, but it's my guess that he would agree with McCain on this assessment.

So now, the review going on within NASA headquarters deals with whether America should continue shuttle flights through 2015, the year in which most experts believe Ares 1 and Orion could be ready. The problem with that, of course, is that they won't be anywhere near ready by then if NASA has to continue to fly the shuttle (at a cost of $3 billion plus annually according to some reports) during that entire time. In other words, if the shuttle continues to fly, NASA will be forced to postpone development of Ares 1 and Orion and, in my mind, the entire Constellation program will be threatened.

Because of the lack of funding, keeping the shuttle fleet operational through 2015 will simply delay the space gap, not solve it. And it will undermine Griffin's own, very strong strategy to get American spacecraft out of Earth orbit and to the Moon, Mars and beyond.

To be sure, I wish we could afford both the shuttle program and Constellation, and not have to rely on Russian spacecraft. I think all of us can agree on that. And if the next president could step up to the plate and double NASA's funding, as it should be done, then all of this could be solved. But there's more chance of your dog or cat speaking French to you than there is of either Obama or McCain making such a bold, striking commitment to space. I wish I was wrong, but I'm not.

So my conclusion to all of this: Stay the Course! Don't change the plan for the shuttle's retirement. If we do this, we'll sit back and watch China and other countries operate on the Moon for years before we get back there. Yes, I know all about the loss of jobs in Florida, in particular, over the retirement of the shuttle program. But Constellation offers the hope of so many more new jobs replacing them in the future.

Michael Griffin has been a competent, even outstanding administrator for NASA. I encourage him to stick to what he knows is right. And I hope all of you will support him in this.

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